Track: Finger Lakes
Race Date: 10/27/2026
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI's Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine
Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
The Machine operates independently of the Morning Line. Unlike standard handicapping models that lean on public sentiment or oddsmaker predictions, TrackSmart AI generates its figures blind—before the Morning Line is even released. Pure Fundamental Analysis: AI selections are derived 100% from performance data, pace mechanics, and class algorithms. The Machine does not know who the "favorite" is supposed to be.
Race 1 — Allowance N1X / $24,500 / 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #5 Combined Win % (Top 3): 76%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — a fast early tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #5 Shortsinthewinter holds the front-running edge, backed by a B- TS Ignition and an A TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #1 Maturation, armed with an A TS Closer grade, is positioned to close from off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #5 Shortsinthewinter and #4 Janssen project to lock horns early and ensure an honest tempo. Turn: The pace through the middle should be brisk, and #7 Free Dance will apply class pressure from a tracking spot. Stretch: #1 Maturation sits the ideal stalking trip to capitalize if the leaders begin to fade.
The Pace Beneficiary: #1 Maturation — the Chaos Survivor with the late kick if the front end wilts.
The Machine's Selections
#7 — Free Dance
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 41%
The Setup: Returns from a 120-day layoff with an elite-percentage barn and an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and A TS Velocity lead this field, and the work tab signals strong morning readiness. The Normalized TPN of 100 sits 12 points clear of the next runner.
TrackSmart Alert: Elite Barn Layoff Return
#5 — Shortsinthewinter
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: Racing every three to four weeks with form holding steadily and an A- TS Caliber.
The Edge: The A TS Surge gives him the best early speed on the engine and a B+ TS Velocity keeps him competitive at this level. His Normalized TPN of 88 trails the top pick by 12.
TrackSmart Alert: Early Speed Edge
#1 — Maturation
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 15%
The Setup: An active three-year-old racing consistently into form with a B+ TS Caliber.
The Edge: The A TS Closer and A- TS Surge combine for the strongest late punch in the field, and he profits directly if the leaders duel.
TrackSmart Alert: Pace Collapse Beneficiary
#4 — Janssen
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: A seasoned runner who fits the level well with a B TS Caliber and a clean, regular cycle.
The Edge: Value look on the engine — B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge give him tactical speed, and he is only one point behind Maturation on the Normalized TPN scale.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Two quick types in #5 Shortsinthewinter and #4 Janssen will set an honest pace, and that sets up a tracking trip for the class of the field. #7 Free Dance owns the top TS Power Score, TS Velocity, and TS Caliber grades in the race and can apply pressure from a stalking spot, making her the most likely winner.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Beach Invasion
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 8%
Angle: A consistent tracker who grades as a Contender and can pick up pieces if the early pace is contested.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $11,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #7 Combined Win % (Top 3): 82%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — a fast early tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #3 Klum holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and an A TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Southern Trouble holds the Garden Spot, tracking just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #3 Klum and #5 Lively Pal bring the fastest early speed and will lock up for the front. Turn: The tempo will be hot and tests both fillies through the bend, though Klum's slight tactical edge should have her leading. #2 Froghollowsummer tracks closely from the rail. Stretch: The pace sets up for #6 Southern Trouble to capitalize late from the prime stalking spot.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Southern Trouble — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the leaders.
The Machine's Selections
#2 — Froghollowsummer
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
The Setup: Steady form cycle with a B TS Caliber and a tactical tracking position.
The Edge: A B TS Velocity and B+ TS Power Score give her the strongest recent figures in a maiden claiming field. Her Normalized TPN of 100 leads the next runner by 6.
#4 — Gattatiz
Normalized TPN: 94 | Win Probability: 31%
The Setup: Second start off a layoff for a high-percentage barn, dropping in class with a B- TS Caliber.
The Edge: B Closer paired with B- TS Ignition and B- TS Surge make her a tactical stalker positioned for the late run. Her Normalized TPN of 94 is four points above Lively Pal.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Drop Angle
#5 — Lively Pal
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: Drops in class with blinkers added, signaling intent from a barn that wins at a high clip.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge give her premier early speed, though the pace pressure and C TS Velocity cap her ceiling.
TrackSmart Alert: Blinkers On, Dropping
#1 — She's a Goddess
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 8%
The Setup: Returns from a 98-day layoff with prior figures that fit well at this level.
The Edge: A B TS Ignition and B TS Closer give her tactical balance; value comes from a fresh runner stepping in cold.
The Machine's Final Analysis
A hot duel up front between #3 Klum and #5 Lively Pal will test the speed. #2 Froghollowsummer's TS Velocity and TS Power Score profile is the most dependable on the card and she is positioned to track the early fireworks, making her the most likely winner, with #4 Gattatiz the primary threat.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Klum
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 6%
Angle: Drops in class with an A TS Ignition and A TS Surge, giving her a puncher's chance if she can survive the pace pressure.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Claiming $4,000 (N1Y) / 5½ Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #6 Combined Win % (Top 3): 87%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed. #5 Hazard Pay, #4 Honey in the Bank, and #2 Only in My Dreams are the pressing speed.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Hypnocurrency, carrying a B- TS Closer, holds the late kick as the pace fades.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: With five speed-styled horses entered, #5 Hazard Pay, #4 Honey in the Bank, and #2 Only in My Dreams all vie for the early lead. Turn: The resulting tempo will be hot and highly destructive to the front-runners. Stretch: As the leaders cook each other, the race sets up for an off-the-pace runner, and #6 Hypnocurrency and #2 Only in My Dreams are positioned to capitalize on the stretch collapse.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Hypnocurrency — the Chaos Survivor holding the late kick.
The Machine's Selections
#2 — Only in My Dreams
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 42%
The Setup: A regular starter holding solid form with an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: A TS Power Score and A- TS Ignition and TS Surge pair speed with class, and his Normalized TPN of 100 is 11 points clear of My Royal Vow.
TrackSmart Alert: Class and Speed Combination
#3 — My Royal Vow
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 26%
The Setup: Second start off a long layoff with an A- TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A- TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge give him tactical speed, and he is eligible to move forward second off the bench. His Normalized TPN of 89 is six points above Hypnocurrency.
TrackSmart Alert: Second Off Layoff
#6 — Hypnocurrency
Normalized TPN: 83 | Win Probability: 19%
The Setup: A fit veteran with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score, maintaining his foundation.
The Edge: TS Closer late kick — the B- TS Closer gets the perfect meltdown setup if the front end collapses. His Normalized TPN of 83 is seven points above Hazard Pay.
TrackSmart Alert: Meltdown Beneficiary
#5 — Hazard Pay
Normalized TPN: 76 | Win Probability: 6%
The Setup: Form cycle trending lower with a C+ TS Caliber and a C+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: TS Velocity focus — a B- TS Velocity with A TS Ignition puts him on the engine's front line, but he will face extreme pressure.
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a high-chaos pace race, but #2 Only in My Dreams combines tactical speed with the best TS Caliber and TS Power Score grades in the field. His grade profile makes him the most likely winner, with #3 My Royal Vow and the closing #6 Hypnocurrency completing the group.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#1 — Peggy Rules
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 4%
Angle: A tracking type who sits just off the speed and benefits if the front end collapses.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — Claiming $5,000 (N3L) / 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #1 Combined Win % (Top 3): 82%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — an honest tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed. #4 Celtic Prince, #3 Percy, and #6 Notfanutin are the pressing speed.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #4 Celtic Prince holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace, with an A TS Surge and B TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: With a cluster of early speed types entered, early positions will be heavily contested. Turn: #3 Percy and #6 Notfanutin press the issue early, keeping the tempo honest but manageable. Stretch: #4 Celtic Prince has the tactical versatility to sit just behind the lead flight, and he holds the clear class edge to run by the tiring leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #4 Celtic Prince — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the leaders.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Celtic Prince
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 46%
The Setup: Dropping in class off a solid current foundation with an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A TS Velocity, A TS Power Score, and A TS Ignition and TS Surge give him a class and speed edge no one else can match. His Normalized TPN of 100 is 16 points clear of Percy.
TrackSmart Alert: Significant Class Drop
#3 — Percy
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: A regular starter holding solid numbers with a B+ TS Caliber.
The Edge: B+ TS Velocity and B+ TS Power Score give him the best local foundation, though the C+ TS Ignition limits his speed. His Normalized TPN of 84 is five points above Notfanutin.
#6 — Notfanutin
Normalized TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Drops in class to find a softer spot with a B+ TS Caliber.
The Edge: A B+ TS Velocity and B TS Closer give him fair late punch, but the C TS Ignition gives him little early speed and he is exposed to pace pressure.
TrackSmart Alert: Dropping To Softer Spot
#7 — The Brown Egg
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 9%
The Setup: A three-year-old with consistent speed and a B TS Caliber who steps up against older horses.
The Edge: The A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge put him on the front line, and his B TS Velocity is steady, but the C+ TS Closer limits him if the pace gets hot.
The Machine's Final Analysis
The tempo will be honest rather than punishing, which keeps every front-runner honest and lets the best horse win. #4 Celtic Prince holds the highest TS Velocity, TS Power Score, and TS Caliber grades in the field while dropping in class, making him the strongest single on the card.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Renaissance Man
Normalized TPN: 73 | Win Probability: 5%
Angle: Consistent but lower-grade figures keep him in the picture as a Fringe contender.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Claiming $5,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #8 Combined Win % (Top 3): 70%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed. #1 Heads Or Tails, #5 Allure of Money, and #3 Breaking Stones are the pressing speed.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #2 Double Shot, with an A TS Closer, is expected to close from off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: Five front-runners vie for the lead, setting up a contested early pace. Turn: #1 Heads Or Tails, #5 Allure of Money, and #3 Breaking Stones lock up early and burn each other out. Stretch: As the front end falters, #2 Double Shot sits positioned off the pace to sweep by the tiring leaders in the final furlong.
The Pace Beneficiary: #2 Double Shot — the Chaos Survivor holding the late kick.
The Machine's Selections
#2 — Double Shot
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 39%
The Setup: A veteran campaigner holding solid form with an A TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score.
The Edge: The A TS Closer is the best in the race and a B+ TS Velocity backs it up. His Normalized TPN of 100 is 14 points clear of Three Little Birds.
TrackSmart Alert: Late Kick Setup
#9 — Three Little Birds
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 17%
The Setup: Fresh off a start 14 days ago with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score.
The Edge: A balanced B across TS Ignition, TS Surge, and TS Closer gives him the tactical edge to survive the early duel. His Normalized TPN of 86 is two points ahead of Mister J T.
TrackSmart Alert: Tactical Tracking Trip
#7 — Mister J T
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: A regular starter with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: The B+ TS Closer pairs with a C TS Ignition, which makes him a deep closer who profits if the speed duel meltdown happens.
TrackSmart Alert: Pace Beneficiary
#3 — Breaking Stones
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: A consistent tracker holding figures with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: The B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge keep him on the speed, but he is vulnerable to pressure in a crowded front end.
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a volatile, speed-heavy race where the front end projects to burn itself out. #2 Double Shot's A TS Closer is the best in the field and perfectly suited to the setup, making him the most likely winner despite a wide-open exotic picture.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#8 — Profitability
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 8%
Angle: Consistent figures grade him as a Contender who can pick up a share if the pace collapses.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Claiming $11,000 (N3L) / 5½ Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #4 Combined Win % (Top 3): 78%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Alpha Controls — a fast early tempo with a clear controlling front-runner.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #4 Lovely Pashyn holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and an A TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #7 Cararra, carrying an A TS Closer, is expected to close from off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: With a strong speed bias favoring the front runners, #4 Lovely Pashyn projects to secure the lead and control the tempo. Turn: The hot pace will test the chasers, but Lovely Pashyn has the class and raw speed to wire the field. Stretch: As the pace tires, #7 Cararra, with the best late kick, gets first run for the minor awards.
The Pace Beneficiary: #7 Cararra — tracking just off the controlling leader with the best TS Closer in the field.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Lovely Pashyn
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 42%
The Setup: A young, improving filly with an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: A TS Ignition and TS Surge give her control from the bell, backed by a B+ TS Velocity. Her Normalized TPN of 100 is two points clear of Cararra.
TrackSmart Alert: Wire-To-Wire Threat
#7 — Cararra
Normalized TPN: 98 | Win Probability: 23%
The Setup: Dropping in class with an A TS Caliber and A TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A TS Closer and A- TS Velocity give him the best late punch, and he inherits the win if the leader collapses. His Normalized TPN of 98 is ten points above Red Burgundy.
TrackSmart Alert: Live Late Kick
#3 — Red Burgundy
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: Dropping in class with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge give him tactical speed and a B TS Closer provides late balance. His Normalized TPN of 88 is two points above Dancin Jane.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Drop Angle
#2 — Dancin Jane
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 10%
The Setup: Second start off a long layoff, dropping in class with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: A B TS Closer and strong returning form make her a tactical stalker who benefits if the pace tires.
TrackSmart Alert: Second Off Layoff
The Machine's Final Analysis
Lovely Pashyn owns the top TS Ignition and TS Surge in a race that favors speed. Her A TS Caliber and balanced profile make her the most likely winner, with #7 Cararra's A TS Closer the primary threat to run her down.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#1 — Hidden Vase
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 6%
Angle: Grades as a Contender but is expected to be pressured early.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — Allowance N3L / $26,900 / 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 78%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — a fast early tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #4 Isola d'Oro holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace, with an A- TS Surge and B+ TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: A bulky group of early pressers, #6 Trew Violence, #4 Isola d'Oro, #1 Muscle Shoals, and #2 Gray Haired Gus, will dispute the early fractions. Turn: The tempo will be honest but fast, and #4 Isola d'Oro has the tactical versatility to secure a prime stalking trip just behind the lead flight. Stretch: Isola d'Oro possesses the superior class and finishing kick to outlast the other pressers.
The Pace Beneficiary: #4 Isola d'Oro — the Chaos Survivor holding the late kick.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Isola d'Oro
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 43%
The Setup: Second start off a layoff for a high-percentage barn, with an A TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A- TS Velocity and A- TS Surge pair with a perfect stalking trip. His Normalized TPN of 100 is eight points clear of Trew Violence.
TrackSmart Alert: Second Off Layoff Peak
#6 — Trew Violence
Normalized TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 21%
The Setup: Second start off a layoff with ascending figures and an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A- TS Velocity, A- TS Power Score, and A- TS Closer, supported by very sharp morning work signaling readiness. His Normalized TPN of 92 is eight points above Muscle Shoals.
TrackSmart Alert: Ascending Second Off Layoff
#1 — Muscle Shoals
Normalized TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: A young, improving three-year-old racing frequently with an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A- TS Power Score and B+ TS Velocity, with a B TS Surge and B+ TS Closer for late balance. His Normalized TPN of 84 is three points above Gray Haired Gus.
#2 — Gray Haired Gus
Normalized TPN: 81 | Win Probability: 11%
The Setup: A consistent tracker with regular spacing and an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A TS Closer is the key to his chances, though the C+ TS Ignition and TS Surge leave him dependent on a fast pace.
The Machine's Final Analysis
A fast, honest pace sets up for the best horse to track and then pounce. #4 Isola d'Oro combines the top TS Caliber and TS Power Score with a stalking style, making him the most likely winner, with #6 Trew Violence offering the best exotic partner.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Ducky Medwick
Normalized TPN: 78 | Win Probability: 6%
Angle: Grades as a Fringe contender but projects to cover extra ground early from an outside post.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — Claiming $5,000 / 5½ Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #2 Combined Win % (Top 3): 82%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested. #4 Thin Legs and #1 Grand Lady Indy are the pressing speed.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Cinnamon Sugar is expected to close from off the pace, pairing an A- TS Surge with a C+ TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: The pace projects to be fast, with #4 Thin Legs, #1 Grand Lady Indy, and #5 Kaymus all possessing the early speed to contest the lead. Turn: The resulting duel will test the front-runners through the turn. Stretch: #6 Cinnamon Sugar sits the ideal tactical stalking trip just off the speed cluster and gets first run on the tiring leaders, with #3 Blue Eyed Scout also positioned to track the leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Cinnamon Sugar — the Chaos Survivor with the first run.
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Cinnamon Sugar
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 44%
The Setup: A strong three-year-old holding solid form with an A TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A+ TS Power Score and B+ TS Velocity lead the field. His Normalized TPN of 100 is 12 points clear of Blue Eyed Scout.
TrackSmart Alert: Prime Stalking Spot
#3 — Blue Eyed Scout
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: A regular starter with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score.
The Edge: A- TS Ignition and TS Surge keep him close to the leaders, though pace pressure is a concern. His Normalized TPN of 88 is two points above Thin Legs.
#4 — Thin Legs
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 16%
The Setup: A consistent veteran at this distance with a B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge give him tremendous early speed, but he must survive the duel up front. His Normalized TPN of 86 is six points above Grand Lady Indy.
#1 — Grand Lady Indy
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 9%
The Setup: A steady veteran holding form with a B+ TS Caliber.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition puts her on the front line, but she faces extreme pressure from the speed cluster.
The Machine's Final Analysis
The speed duel will melt down the front end. #6 Cinnamon Sugar holds the strongest TS Power Score and TS Caliber grades in the field and sits the prime stalking spot, making him the most likely winner and a single candidate on multi-race tickets.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Numeric
Normalized TPN: 77 | Win Probability: 5%
Angle: Speed is lagging, but she drops in class for an easier spot and benefits from a pace meltdown.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
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